Capital Rotation: Gold Hits $5,100, KOSPI at All-Time Highs While Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $250M Daily
Gold crossed $5,100 with a 74% YoY gain. KOSPI hit all-time highs. Meanwhile, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw 4 consecutive days of outflows totaling $250M per day. Here's what the capital rotation means.
Catalyst
Capital Rotation — Gold ATH $5,109 + KOSPI ATH + BTC ETF 4-Day Outflows
Economic Events
- Monday — Housing data, consumer confidence
- Tuesday — $8B Treasury injection
- Thursday — Weekly jobless claims, GDP revision
- Friday — PCE (consensus 2.5% YoY — key for June rate cut pricing)
TL;DR
- Gold at $5,109/oz — up 74% in 12 months, safe haven bid accelerating
- KOSPI at 5,808 near ATH — Korean institutions bought $1B+ while foreigners sold $920M
- Bitcoin spot ETF: 4 consecutive days of outflows at $250M/day
- Ethereum spot ETF: $180M/day outflows
- Fear & Greed Index at 43 — firmly in Fear territory
- SK Hynix at PER 11x vs Micron 29x despite earning 3x more — HBM4 value play
- Gold-to-Bitcoin historical lag: 100-150 days — Bitcoin's move could begin Q3 2026
Market Overview
| Asset | Last | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,109 | +74% YoY | ATH — safe haven bid |
| SPX | 6,862 | Steady | Resilient |
| KOSPI | 5,808 | Near ATH | Institutional buying $1B+ |
| BTC | $68,198 | Weak | ETF outflows $250M/day |
| ETH | $3,097 | Weak | ETF outflows $180M/day |
| 10Y | 4.09% | Stable | PCE Friday key |
The Divergence That Defines February 2026
The numbers tell a clear story: traditional assets are at all-time highs while crypto struggles.
Where capital is flowing:
- Gold: $5,109/oz, up 74% in 12 months
- S&P 500: 6,862, steady gains
- KOSPI: 5,808, near all-time highs with institutional buying of $1B+
- Bitcoin spot ETF: 4 consecutive days of outflows, $250M/day
- Ethereum spot ETF: $180M/day outflows
- Fear & Greed Index: 43 (Fear territory)
The Korean Equity Story
The KOSPI story is particularly interesting. Foreign investors sold $920M, but Korean institutions stepped in with over $1B in net buying. The sectors leading the charge: semiconductors, nuclear, defense, and shipbuilding.
SK Hynix at 544,000 KRW with a PER of 11x versus Micron's 29x — despite earning 3x more. The HBM4 supercycle with chip prices at $700 (up 30% from HBM3E) and operating margins of 50-60% make Korean semis the value play of 2026.
What ETF Outflows Actually Mean
Not all outflows are bearish. The current streak is largely driven by:
- Basis trade unwinding (hedge funds closing arbitrage positions)
- Quarterly portfolio rebalancing
- Tax-loss harvesting
The Gold-to-Bitcoin Lag
Historically, major gold breakouts precede Bitcoin's next leg by 100-150 days. Gold broke out in October 2025. If the pattern holds, Bitcoin's move begins in Q3 2026.
Key Levels
| Asset | Support | Resistance | Bias |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | $65,000 | $72,000 | Neutral — ETF flow dependent |
| ETH | $3,000 | $3,300 | Bearish until outflows stop |
| KOSPI | 5,500 | 6,000 | Bullish — institutional support |
| Gold | $4,800 | $5,300 | Bullish |
| 10Y | 4.00% | 4.15% | PCE Friday = catalyst |
Scenarios
If: ETF outflows stabilize + gold momentum continues + PCE in-line Friday
Then: BTC reclaims $70K, KOSPI tests 6,000 → rotation narrative shifts to risk-on
If: ETF outflows accelerate + hot PCE print Friday
Then: BTC loses $65K support, gold extends to $5,300 → capital rotation deepens into safe havens
TTL Take
Gold at $5,109 and KOSPI near ATH while Bitcoin ETFs bleed $250M daily. The capital rotation is undeniable.
But context matters. The August 2024 precedent showed that a 7-day ETF outflow streak at $58,000 preceded a rally to $108,000. Current outflows are largely mechanical — basis trades, rebalancing, tax harvesting — not panic selling.
The gold-to-Bitcoin lag of 100-150 days suggests patience. Gold broke out in October 2025. If the historical pattern holds, Bitcoin's next major move begins Q3 2026.
This week's key: Friday's PCE at consensus 2.5% YoY will determine whether June rate cut pricing holds. That's the macro catalyst that could break the current range.
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